US President Donald Trump’s Sauron’s Eye has turned upon South Africa, and let’s just say it’s been an interesting couple of days. But are bilateral relations between the two countries in danger of crumbling? Not quite yet, according to the experts we’ve spoken to. Read on to find out more. 

What has been happening?

We’ve told you before about Trump signing a bunch of executive orders that have had an impact across the world. We’ve also told you that Trump is aligning himself with billionaire tech bros who, for better but likely for worse, want a piece of the American economic pie like they don’t own a large chunk of it already.

Now Trump has zeroed in on South Africa, our land and, well… our land, particularly the recently passed Land Expropriation Act.

Firing shots

On Sunday, 2 February 2025, The Donald took to his Truth Social platform and accused the South African government of “confiscating land, and treating certain classes of people VERY BADLY,” Trump wrote, saying that the US wouldn’t stand for it and would “act.” Trump also threatened to cut off all future funding to South Africa until “a “full investigation of this situation has been completed!”

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa responded in a lengthy statement on X (formerly Twitter) by reminding Trump that South Africa is a constitutional democracy that is deeply rooted in the rule of law, justice and equality. “The South African government has not confiscated any land. The recently adopted Expropriation Act is not a confiscation instrument, but a constitutionally mandated legal process that ensures public access to land in an equitable and just manner as guided by the constitution,” Ramaphosa said. 

The Democratic Alliance has said that while the Act needed to be amended, it rejected claims that the Act would be used to seize land. “It is unfortunate that individuals have sought to portray this Act as an amendment to Section 25 of the Constitution to allow for Expropriation Without Compensation,” the party said in a statement. They reaffirmed their commitment to protecting and fostering stronger US-SA relations. “The GNU is in the process of engaging the Trump administration to clarify the situation, and the DA supports these efforts.”

Enter X’s owner, Elon Musk, who is close to Trump and is set to lead his “Department of Government Efficiency” or DOGE. Musk made his way into the dispute on Monday with a post on X accusing South Africa of having “openly racist ownership laws”, suggesting White people were the victims. Musk, who was born in South Africa and lived here until the age of 17, is probably reacting like this because his satellite company, Starlink, won’t comply with South Africa’s Black Economic Empowerment laws, which say that for any foreign company to operate in the country, it should be 30% owned by historically disadvantaged groups. Starlink, run by Musk’s SpaceX, is a satellite internet service that covers over 60 countries, which include our neighbours Botswana, Mozambique, Namibia and Zambia. 

It’s now understood that Musk and Ramaphosa have spoken on the phone, billionaire to billionaire, on Monday to discuss “issues of misinformation and distortions about South Africa.”

Should we be worried?

South Africa and US relations, while cordial, are already not at their steadiest because of the former’s participation in BRICS and South Africa taking Israel, a staunch US ally, to the International Court of Justice for the war in Gaza last year. Following this, two United States congressmen, Republican congressman John James and Democratic Party congressman Jared Moskowitz, proposed a bill calling for a comprehensive review of the country’s ties with South Africa, citing concerns over national security.

However, this latest development, while worrying, is unlikely to affect economic relations between the two countries. For now.

Professor John Stremlau believes that while things might be shaky, this is unlikely to change bilateral agreements such as the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). 

“While South Africa could be affected by these cuts, the US could also lose out on minerals that are essential for cars, cellphones, etc. I don’t think Trump wants that,” said Stremlau, who is an American political scientist and international affairs expert, particularly known for his work in diplomacy, democracy, and African politics.

Stremlau is right. For example, in 2023, South Africa’s exports to the US were valued at approximately $8.32 billion, with a significant portion being minerals. Good luck making those iPhones and Teslas without our minerals. 

The two countries simply need each other.

From Afriforum to the world

Back to Trump, where is he getting his information? That’s an easy(ish) answer: The Afrikaans lobby group Afriforum. 

Established in 2006, the group, which protects the interests of Afrikaans-speaking White South Africans, has repeatedly tried to lobby right-wing Republican lawmakers to take notice of “the situation in South Africa”, where they are claiming that White Afrikaner farmers were being targeted and that there was a systematic killing of White South Africans or a “White Genocide” if you will. The claims of a White Genocide in Mzansi have been disproven numerous times, but Afriforum and their right-wing cronies, including Musk, still perpetuate the narrative. So, the “certain classes of people” Trump was referring to? White South Africans. 

They’ve now lobbied Trump and the US Congress to look into the Expropriation Act as they claim that it will lead to widespread land grabs. 

This isn’t their first rodeo with Trump either. In his first administration, they went on a tour to the US to meet with organisations and legislators sympathetic to their course. This led to Trump claiming in 2018 that there were “large-scale killings” of White South African farmers. 

After Trump’s threat to cut aid to South Africa, the organisation has now backtracked and said it would write a letter to Trump, asking him to “rather target senior ANC leaders directly and not South Africa’s residents.”

But is there more to this?

Could there be more to this than just the complaints of a fringe group interested in protecting a wealthy minority’s interests? Stremlau believes so. He believes that South Africa could be facing reprisals for their positioning on key issues like the Ukraine-Russia war and the Israel-Gaza conflict. 

“Trump doesn’t play by the rules of democracies. He centralises the voice of the radical Republicans who see South Africa as being on the wrong side of these issues,” said Stremlau. For example, in April last year, six US lawmakers (both Republican and Democrat) threatened ‘consequences’ if South Africa arrested citizens for serving in the Israel Defense Forces. 

Ted cruises into the fray

As the kerfuffle between South Africa, Trump and Musk simmers down (somewhat), Texas senator and member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Ted Cruz, has lashed out at South Africa for its positioning on Tawain. Cruz said in a series of tweets that “the South African government seems to be going out of their way to alienate the United States and our allies”.

For context: South Africa officially adheres to the “One China” policy, recognising the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legitimate government of China, including Taiwan as part of its territory. This stance has been in place since 1997, when South Africa ended formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan in favour of China.

More recently, the South African government has asked Taiwan to relocate its de facto embassy—the Taipei Liaison Office—from Pretoria to Johannesburg and rebrand it as a trade office. The rationale is to emphasise that South Africa’s engagement with Taiwan is purely economic rather than political. However, Taiwan has pushed back, arguing that a 1997 agreement allows it to maintain its office in Pretoria.

Cruz said he intended to use his position as the chairman of the Africa subcommittee on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee to “investigate these and other concerning decisions by South Africa.”

Can fences be mended?

According to Stremlau, this could be achieved if Democrats “got their act together” and won the 2026 US Senate elections. He mentions that International Relations and Cooperation Minister Ronald Lamola is the only one striking a reasonable tone. Lamola said the South African government trusts that President Trump’s advisors will “make use of the investigative period to attain a thorough understanding of South Africa’s policies within the framework of constitutional democracy”. But there was nobody for the South African government to speak to.

What is becoming abundantly clear is that relations between Pretoria and Washington are shaky. The future of US-South Africa relations hinges not just on Trump’s policies but also on how much pushback he receives from within his own government and the broader electorate.  “Americans have to get their act together and rein Trump in. He doesn’t have a large base, probably only a third of Republicans. Democrats, in particular, need to remember that in a democracy, the grassroots organisations matter,” concludes Stremlau.