For the first time since apartheid ended in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) no longer holds the majority in Parliament. The election results, announced on Sunday, show a shift that could mean big changes and new opportunities for South Africa. 

But let’s be honest, it’s left a lot of us scratching our heads and wondering what on earth is going to happen next. We’re going to break it all down for you – no politics degree required!

  • After all the ballots were counted, the ANC secured only 40.18% of the votes, decreasing from 57.5% in the 2019 elections. The ANC, which used to hold a dominant position in the National Assembly with 230 seats, now only holds 159 seats out of 400. This loss of 71 seats signals a clear message from the electorate: the time for political parties to work together has arrived.
  • The Democratic Alliance (DA) emerged as the second-largest party, securing 21.81% of the votes and three more seats in Parliament. 
  • The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) lost five seats, going from 44 to 39.
  • The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) grew from 14 to 17 seats.
  • The newly formed uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) Party shook things up, nabbing a big chunk of votes from the ANC. They managed to scoop up about 14.58% of all the votes cast and secured a solid 58 seats in Parliament.
  • Gayton MacKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance (PA) obtained nine seats in its debut to the national legislature.
  • Build One South Africa (BOSA) and Rise Mzansi – also new parties – scored two seats each.

With no party winning the elections outright, coalition talks are now the name of the game.

Why? Since the ANC has lost its coveted majority, the party can no longer bulldoze legislation through Parliament; they’ll have to buddy up with one or more other parties to get anything done. Whether it’s electing a president or passing a budget, the ANC is going to need some new friends in Parliament.

So, what are the options?

One of the most anticipated discussions is between the ANC and the DA. Throughout the election campaign, the DA had been banking on the Multi-Party Charter to achieve a collective majority of 50% plus and uproot the ANC from power. The Charter included ten parties, including the IFP, Freedom Front Plus, and ActionSA. 

However, the Charter fell short of its objectives and could not secure a majority, prompting the DA to pivot and explore other avenues. 

The DA, which increased its representation from 84 to 87 seats, has expressed openness to coalition talks. However, bridging the gap between the ANC and the DA isn’t exactly a walk in the park. Some in the ANC, especially those who lean towards business-friendly policies, might prefer a tie-up with the DA. However, many black South Africans view the DA, led by white politicians, as prioritising white interests—a claim the DA strongly denies. Plus, the DA isn’t budging on its policy priorities. They’re against the ANC’s black empowerment policies and the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill, which could make finding common ground a bit tricky.

Despite this, both parties are engaging in discussions, with DA leader John Steenhuisen expressing openness to coalition talks.

Another potential coalition option – albeit an increasingly unlikely one – revolves around former President Jacob Zuma’s MK Party, which emerged as the third-largest party with 58 seats. But the MK has made it clear they won’t team up with the ANC as long as Ramaphosa is in charge, and the ANC doesn’t seem too keen on entertaining the MK party either.  

“Ramaphosa is the president of the ANC. If you come to us with a demand that Ramaphosa must stand down as president, that is not going to happen,” stated ANC secretary-general Fikile Mbalula. 

When asked about a potential coalition with the Zuma-led party, Mbalula said, “We’ve got many reservations about that party [MK], but we will talk to them.” He’s made it clear, however, that the ANC will not oust Ramaphosa at the behest of any coalition partner. The MK Party has said it will not work with a “Ramaphosa-led” ANC, agitating for their former political home to do away with Zuma’s nemesis. For now, it seems coalition talks between these two are a non-starter, which is good news for the country’s economy: investors and the business sector are spooked by the idea of the MK Party being anywhere near power with their disregard for the South African constitution and their love of nationalising, well, everything. 

The MK Party have also flouted the most basic rule of South African elections: not undermining the credibility of our precious elections. Zuma has called for a revote, claiming the vote was rigged, despite no evidence and observers declaring the election free and fair. Other parties who pointed out technical issues, like the EFF, Cope and others, said they accepted the election results. EFF leader Julius Malema said his party accepted the minor discrepancies they raised would not have any material effect on the final result – the EFF saw its share of the vote shrink nationally. 

Beyond these prominent options, various other coalition possibilities emerge.

The EFF, despite losing seats, remains a significant player. However, with only 9% of the votes, a coalition between the ANC and the EFF would fall just short of the required 50%. An alliance between the EFF and MK could be mutually beneficial, combining MK’s new momentum with the EFF’s established presence and radical policies. 

Another potential coalition could involve the MK Party teaming up with the IFP. The IFP gained three seats, bringing their total to a respectable 17, and both parties share a common interest in challenging the ANC’s dominance. However, given MK’s refusal to work with the ANC under Ramaphosa, an MK-IFP coalition might be a strategic move to strengthen their position and push their agendas in Parliament.

The ANC’s deputy secretary-general, Nomvula Mokonyane, emphasised the importance of “stability” during these negotiations. But we empathise if you’re not feeling particularly stable! Thankfully, according to various reports, a DA and ANC partnership, perhaps with the IFP thrown in too to try to secure KwaZulu-Natal, is looking increasingly likely. 

The newly elected National Assembly has less than 14 days to have its first sitting, during which members will be sworn in and the speaker elected. Then, it’s on to the big one: electing the president of South Africa.

So, buckle up! It’s going to be a wild ride, but hey, that’s South African politics for you!
PS. In our next article, we’ll tackle the different kinds of coalition agreements South Africa could possibly see: from minority government to so-called “confidence and supply”. Stay tuned for more.