Early results paint a dramatic picture of the political landscape in South Africa. 

While just a small percentage of the vote has been counted, election projections are available by the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), a state-owned institution which has called the results based on exit polls pretty accurately since 1999.  

Here are its projections as of 1 PM today, the day after voting, with nearly 20% of votes counted. 

  • For the first time in our democratic history, the ANC will fall below the 50% mark in a national election. According to CSIR’s predictions, the party currently holds 41.8% of the vote, a shock for the ruling party, which had hoped to confound polls predicting that outcome with a typically late-in-season surge in campaigning. 
  • The DA has declined as predicted in the Western Cape but retains a majority with a projected 51.15% of the vote in that province. This should be a wake-up call to the Blue Party, which achieved nearly 60% of the vote in 2014 and over 55% in 2019. If this trajectory continues, the DA might lose the province soon. 
  • Nationally, the DA seems to be performing in line with most pre-election surveys. The CSIR projects 21.2% of the national vote, down from their high of 22.23% in 2014 but still higher than the 20.77% achieved under former leader Mmusi Maimane, who was forced out over that result. 
  • The EFF sits at a dismal 9.1% of the projected vote, far below the 2019 result of 10.8%, with the MK Party eating into its support nationally as expected with a whopping 14% of the projected vote. 

Speaking of the MK Party, one of the most significant developments is that it’s predicted to take the lead in KwaZulu-Natal with over 43% of the vote! The ANC has been left a distant second with 20.61% predicted and the IFP at just over 18% in its traditional stronghold. 

This is a huge deal. KZN has always been a key player in South African elections. Since 1994, it’s flipped between the IFP and the ANC, but this year might see it swing to the MK Party in some sort of coalition, which may be disastrous for the already disaster-stricken province (riots, natural disasters, etc etc). The EFF, again is the most damaged by MK’s emergence, losing their previous gains of over 9% in the province and projected to secure a dismal 2.32% of the projected vote. 

Despite its internal battles and Zuma’s exclusion from parliament, the MK Party has resonated strongly with rural and youth voters in KZN, filling a void left by the IFP, which many see as outdated.

Why does this matter? KZN’s votes have been crucial for the ANC in past elections. Under Zuma, the province was a reliable support base, helping the ANC maintain its power even when its popularity dipped elsewhere. If KZN goes to the MK Party, the ANC will have to rethink its strategy big time.