After two devastating years of war, the guns in Gaza finally fell silent last Friday.
It is the first major reprieve in the conflict since Hamas’s October 2023 attack triggered Israel’s devastating military response.
How did it happen?
At the beginning of September, an increasingly cocky Israel carried out a targeted strike in Qatar against Hamas leaders. The problem this time? Qatar is a key US ally. Israel had majorly misstepped. “Trump, who has a longstanding relationship with the Qataris, issued a surprisingly sharp rebuke of the Israeli attack,” reported Politico.
The strike also galvanised Arab leaders into action. On the sidelines of the recent UN General Assembly, they presented Trump with a detailed peace proposal.
For Trump, who reportedly lost interest in the Ukraine–Russia war and has been desperate to polish his “global peacemaker” image (and, yes, chase that elusive Nobel Prize), it was the perfect stage. Once focused, he acted like a bulldozer, leaning hard on Israel while Arab leaders pressed Hamas to play ball.
So, what does the ceasefire deal actually involve?
🔹Hostage exchange: Hamas handed over the last 20 living Israeli hostages on Monday, after 738 days in captivity. In exchange, Israel freed nearly 2,000 Palestinian detainees, including 250 serving life sentences.
🔹Ceasefire and aid access: Both sides agreed to stop attacks and allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. The UN began ramping up relief efforts for the hundreds of thousands displaced.
But by Tuesday, the cracks were showing. Here’s what’s threatening to unravel the fragile truce:
🔹Hostage body confusion: One of the bodies returned to Israel turned out not to be a hostage, sparking outrage. Hamas claims some remain buried under rubble (a consequence of Israel’s brutal bombings throughout Gaza ); Israel accuses them of stalling.
🔹Aid restrictions: Netanyahu has cut daily UN aid convoys from 500 trucks to just 300, excluding fuel and gas, and kept the crucial Rafah border closed.
🔹Violence on the buffer zone: Israeli troops opened fire on “suspects” near the designated no-go zone, killing nine Palestinians, in the first lethal breach since the truce began.
Talks are now underway in Egypt on “Phase Two” of the plan. The next steps? Hamas must disarm (which they have only partially agreed to), a new Palestinian technocratic government may take shape (former British PM Tony Blair’s name is oddly in the mix), and a full Israeli withdrawal could follow.
As for the people of Gaza, many are already moving back into the wreckage of their former homes, while the UN scrambles to roll out humanitarian relief. With over 67,000 Palestinians dead and 78% of buildings reduced to rubble, the road ahead is long and fragile.
