For those of us on this side of the world, attempting to keep up with American politics can be a debilitating task. But to keep it simple (if a US election could ever be described as such):
Americans will head to the polls on 5 November this year to cast their ballots. But before the big presidential showdown can take place, the two dominating parties, the Democrats and the Republicans, have been battling it out in the primary elections to determine who will be the face of their campaign.
Donald Trump has resurfaced on the scene, eyeing a return to the US political arena. He seeks to stage what could be the most remarkable political comeback ever witnessed despite four ongoing criminal trials.
In November 2022, Trump announced his candidacy for presidency. Trump served as the 45th US president from January 2017 to January 2021, after losing the election to current president Biden.
But what is the likelihood of Trump returning for another term in the Oval Office?
Trump kicked off his primary campaign as one of nine Republican candidates. However, as of 6 March 2024, his last remaining rival Nikki Haley pulled out of the race.
President Joe Biden announced his re-election bid earlier this year, and despite facing a few unlikely contenders, he is expected to secure the Democratic Party nomination with relative ease.
Now all seems set for a second presidential faceoff between current President Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Trump carries some baggage into the upcoming elections. The president, unlike any other, made history by being impeached not once, but twice. The first impeachment occurred in 2019, on charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. The accusations arose from claims that Trump corruptly pressured Ukraine to investigate and discredit his Democratic political rival, Joe Biden, and his son, Hunter Biden.
Fast forward to 2021, Trump again found himself in the hot seat facing the senate, this time for incitement of insurrection after he encouraged a violent mob of his supporters to storm the Capitol building on 6 January 2021.
Donald Trump went on to outdo himself and further etch his name into the US history books by becoming the first inaugural president to be acquitted twice after impeachment.
Last year, several US states filed lawsuits, including Colorado, Maine, and Illinois attempting to bar Trump from the 2024 presidential primary ballots. The lawsuits referenced Trump’s role in the January 6 Capitol attack as grounds for disqualification.
However, on Monday 4 March, the US Supreme Court unanimously ruled in favour of Donald Trump, preventing individual states from removing Trump from the primary voting ballot.
The Supreme Court handed down a 9-0 ruling on the matter, ruling that “the way to deal with political candidates was not by preventing them from being on ballots but by voting on them,” said J. Brooks Spector, former US Diplomat and associate editor at Daily Maverick.
“The only thing that will stop him will be a decision by himself, he will not be stopped even if he is in the midst of one of his trials, even if he is convicted in one of his trials and even if he is sentenced in one of his trials,” he added.
Trump’s ongoing legal battles will not play a role in the viability Trump’s presidential campaign, says Spector, who noted that “In 1920, Eugene V Debs, the socialist party candidate for president, ran for office while he was in jail after having been convicted of sedition and got almost a million votes.”
Despite the scandals that always seem to be in Trump’s wake, “Hundreds of thousands of Republican voters can’t sign up fast enough for Trump’s vows of ‘retribution,” according to CNN. And given Biden’s decreasing approval ratings and increasing concern about his age (Biden is 81, Trump is 77), many democrats feel deeply insecure about the outcome of the elections.
“Unless Biden pivots, we have every reason to believe that his falling poll numbers could be signs of coming electoral defeat,” according to Osita Nwanevu, reporting for the Guardian.
With more than 7 months until Americans cast their ballots, nothing is cast in stone. As the drama unfolds across the Atlantic, we’re in for a gripping journey.
