The Middle East is on fire—again. Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a military offensive on Iran, dubbed “Operation Rising Lion”. The strikes have so far wiped out the top echelon of Iran’s military command, damaged its nuclear capabilities and killed hundreds of people, while Iranian retaliatory strikes have killed at least two dozen civilians in Israel, Reuters reports. Today brought fresh news that Israel had bombed nuclear targets in Iran, and Iranian missiles hit an Israeli hospital overnight.
So, why now? Officially, Israel says it’s trying to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran’s also been bankrolling groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, who’ve been thorns in Israel’s side forever. But critics aren’t convinced that’s the only reason.
Netanyahu’s political survival has increasingly relied on whipping up security threats.
He is facing multiple corruption charges that could lead to prison time, plus a reckoning with his own failings ahead of the October 2023 Hamas-led attacks on Israel. His ruling coalition is also extremely vulnerable, narrowly surviving a vote to dissolve parliament and trigger elections last week.
Analysts say he’s used military campaigns before – like Gaza – to distract from legal troubles and rally support.
Arab-Israelis and international observers have raised alarm, accusing Israel of violating international law and risking a wider war.
The huge issue now is whether the US will be drawn into the conflict, dramatically raising the stakes and creating global repercussions. Trump seems to relish keeping the world guessing, saying yesterday, “nobody knows” what he will do.
Previously, he went from proposing a swift diplomatic end to the war to suggesting the US might join it. On Tuesday, he mused on social media about killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, then demanded Iran’s unconditional surrender.
Asked yesterday whether the US was getting closer to striking Iran’s nuclear facilities, Trump said: “I may do it. I may not do it.” An Economist/YouGov poll conducted over the weekend revealed that 53% of voters who backed Trump in the 2024 presidential election do not want the country to join in Israel’s strikes. Will Trump listen?
