Why is Rwandan President Paul Kagame lowkey threatening war on South Africa… and what does this all have to do with South African soldiers dying in the DRC?

Over the past two weeks, 14 South African National Defence Force (SANDF) soldiers have been killed by the Rwandan-backed M23 rebels, sparking an uproar locally. Now, President Cyril Ramaphosa has issued a warning: if SANDF troops continue to be attacked, it could be seen as a “declaration of war.”

We break down how Rwanda is involved, why its president is beefing with ours, and what this means for our troops trapped in a deteriorating situation.

Why is South Africa in the DRC? 

South Africa has been involved in peacekeeping operations in the DRC for decades. But this latest deployment, under the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), was supposed to help stabilise the country after years of armed conflict.

The eastern DRC has been plagued by violence for over 30 years, with numerous armed groups fighting for control of the region’s vast mineral wealth. One of the most powerful rebel groups is the M23, which is largely made up of ethnic Tutsis and has long been accused of receiving support from Rwanda.

The M23 briefly took control of Goma, a key city near the Rwandan border, in 2012. After being forced out by a UN-backed force, the group went quiet for nearly a decade. But in 2021, it resurfaced and began taking territory again, claiming that the Congolese government had broken peace agreements to protect Tutsis communities.

By December 2023, the situation had worsened significantly, and SADC approved the deployment of a regional force—including South African troops—to push back the rebels. But instead of a peacekeeping mission, SANDF soldiers have found themselves in full-scale combat.

The battle for Goma

Over the past week, the M23 has made significant gains, capturing much of Goma—a city of over a million people and a major trade hub. With control over Goma, the rebels now have access to strategic transport routes and valuable mining areas, where minerals like gold, tin, and coltan (used in mobile phones) are found.

Reports indicate that M23 forces are taking over local government operations, further entrenching their rule in the region. Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation is dire—food and water shortages, overwhelmed hospitals, and civilian casualties are mounting.

For South African troops, the situation is bleak. According to a City Press report, SANDF soldiers ran out of ammunition last week, leaving them vulnerable to rebel attacks. Some reports even suggest that soldiers were unable to store their fallen comrades because a mobile mortuary had never been unlocked or tested for service.

Rwanda vs South Africa

As the fighting in the DRC escalates, tensions between South Africa and Rwanda have reached a critical level. Ramaphosa has publicly accused the M23 and the Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) of being responsible for the deaths of South African troops. Rwanda, in turn, has dismissed these claims and accused South Africa of meddling in Congolese affairs.

Kagame has taken an aggressive stance, warning on X  that if South Africa “prefers confrontation, Rwanda will deal with the matter in that context any day.”

The Rwanda-South Africa rivalry is not new. The two countries have had a troubled relationship for years, with tensions dating back to 2014, when South Africa expelled three Rwandan diplomats after the assassination of Patrick Karegeya, a former Rwandan intelligence chief, in Johannesburg.

At the time, South Africa accused Rwanda of targeting exiled political opponents on its soil. Kagame, however, brushed off the allegations, responding coldly: “Treason brings consequences.”

Relations were strained, but not completely broken. That changed when South Africa sent troops to the DRC in December 2023 under the SAMIDRC Mission. The goal was to help stabilise the region after years of rebel violence.

The problem? The main rebels threatening the DRC—M23—are widely believed to be backed by Rwanda.

Is Rwanda supporting M23?

Rwanda claims that its involvement in the DRC is about security, arguing that the Congolese military is working with Hutu militias responsible for the 1994 Rwandan genocide. Kagame has used this justification to keep Rwandan forces active in eastern Congo for years.

But that’s not the full picture. The UN, US, and France have all accused Rwanda of backing M23 to maintain influence over eastern DRC, which is home to trillions of dollars worth of minerals, including gold, tin, and coltan (a key material in mobile phones and electronics).

For Rwanda, controlling the eastern DRC is a strategic goldmine—literally. By supporting M23, Kagame ensures Rwandan access to these resources while also weakening the Congolese government.

Kagame’s involvement in the DRC conflict dates back to the 1994 Rwandan genocide, where, as leader of the Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF), he played a key role in both the preceding ethnic wars and in ending the genocide. After seizing power in Rwanda—consolidating his rule through reportedly rigged elections and political assassinations—Kagame pursued Hutu génocidaires who had fled to Zaire (now the DRC).

In 1996, Rwanda backed a rebellion to topple Zaire’s dictator, Mobutu Sese Seko, sparking the First Congo War. Even after official peace deals, Rwanda has maintained influence in eastern DRC, allegedly backing armed groups like M23, as revealed in a leaked UN report, ensuring the region remains a battleground for its strategic interests.

What is SADC doing about this?

On 31 January 2025, SADC leaders met in Harare to discuss the crisis. The regional bloc reaffirmed its “unwavering commitment” to supporting the DRC and condemned the attacks on SAMIDRC troops. The summit also called for urgent diplomatic efforts, with SADC defence ministers and military chiefs being sent to assess the situation.

But while SADC has pledged to continue its mission, there are serious doubts about whether South African troops have the resources they need to continue fighting. Unlike Rwanda’s highly disciplined and well-equipped military, SANDF has been plagued by budget cuts, ageing equipment, and logistical failures.

Can South Africa afford this fight?

One of the biggest issues facing Ramaphosa is that, as a democratic leader, he has to answer to multiple groups—the military, Parliament, opposition parties, and the public. And right now, all of them are demanding answers.

The Economic Freedom Fighters have called for Defence Minister Angie Motshekga’s resignation, while Parliament has scheduled an urgent debate on the mission. Meanwhile, SANDF unions are speaking out about the lack of support for soldiers, and military analysts are questioning whether South Africa was prepared for this level of combat.

By contrast, Kagame has a much freer hand. He controls the Rwandan government, military, and media with an iron grip, allowing him to make swift, decisive military decisions without worrying about public backlash.

Unlike Ramaphosa, Kagame doesn’t have to answer to opposition parties, a free press, or public scrutiny. He can make fast, strategic military decisions without resistance.

What happens next?

On Monday, the M23 rebels announced a unilateral ceasefire, citing humanitarian reasons after 900 people were reportedly killed in last week’s fighting.

While this could signal a break in hostilities, there are concerns that M23 is simply consolidating its gains before resuming their offensive.

This isn’t just about the DRC. The Rwanda-South Africa conflict could reshape regional power dynamics in Africa. If South Africa backs down, Kagame will emerge stronger, with greater control over eastern Congo’s resources.

If South Africa stays the course, it risks further military losses and an even deeper conflict with Rwanda.

But there’s also a broader moral question: South Africa has long positioned itself as a champion of human rights and democracy in Africa. If it allows Rwanda’s military-backed rebels to take over parts of the DRC without a fight, what message does that send?

For now, the ceasefire offers a temporary pause, but with both sides deeply entrenched, it’s clear that the fight for control in the DRC—and the diplomatic battle between Rwanda and South Africa—is far from over.

Whatever happens next, one thing is clear: South Africa is standing on the right side of history, defending democracy and regional stability against Kagame’s aggressive expansionism. The challenge for Ramaphosa is not just protecting South African troops—it’s proving that South Africa remains a decisive force for peace and justice in Africa.