Will the breakthrough ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas see the light of day?

The breakthrough deal, collectively brokered by Qatar, Egypt and the United States, was announced on Wednesday to much anticipation. 

However, an Israeli government vote to ratify the deal, scheduled for Thursday at 11 am local time, was delayed. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Hamas of reneging on unspecified parts of the agreement, saying:  “The Israeli cabinet will not convene until the mediators notify Israel that Hamas has accepted all elements of the agreement.”

For Palestinians in Gaza, a deal could mean an end to a brutal 460 days of war. The truce, if approved once Israel’s cabinet stops delaying voting it into existence, will take effect on Sunday, January 19. 

Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, confirmed on Wednesday that the ceasefire deal would come into effect on Sunday but added that work on implementation steps with Israel and Hamas was continuing. The next three days are going to be interesting. 

Why is this truce needed?

On 7 October 2023, Hamas, a Palestinian armed group and political movement in the Gaza Strip, attacked Israel, killing about 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages. This triggered a massive Israeli military offensive in Gaza, which has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians and sparked a global outcry. 

The deal, which has three phases, includes a temporary ceasefire that will, for now, bring to an end the destruction in Gaza, as well as the release of captives held in Gaza and many of the prisoners held by Israel. The deal will also, finally, allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes – though not many homes longer remain.

What does the deal look like?

The first phase is set to last 42 days, in which Hamas will release 33 hostages, including female civilians and soldiers, children and civilians over 50. In turn, Israel will release 30 Palestinian captives for each civilian hostage and 50 for each female soldier. Israeli occupation forces will move out of populated areas to the edge of the strip, and displaced Palestinians will return. More humanitarian aid will also enter.

In the second phase, after the initial 42 days, Hamas will release remaining male hostages, both civilian and soldiers, for a yet-to-be-decided number of imprisoned Palestinians and a full withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

Phase three calls for the bodies of deceased hostages in Gaza to be exchanged for the bodies of deceased Palestinian fighters. A reconstruction plan in Gaza will be implemented, and border crossings in and out of Gaza will resume.

An important note: if a deal is not reached within the first 42 days as to how Gaza will be governed, armed Israeli occupational forces can reenter Gaza. 

Who is responsible for the deal?

There have been a few key political and legal moments leading up to this deal.

In the first few months, Western states largely opposed a ceasefire, citing “the right to self-defence”. As the war waged on and the death toll rose, calls for humanitarian pauses increased.

In December 2023, South Africa accused Israel of genocide against Palestinians, contradicting the Genocide Convention, in a lengthy court filing to the International Court of Justice. While not granting South Africa’s request to order Israel to suspend its military operations in Gaza, the Court ordered Israel to take measures to prevent acts of genocide and allow humanitarian aid in the Gaza Strip. A 5,000-page memorial was then submitted by South Africa to the ICJ detailing Israel’s genocidal actions. Israel’s counter-memorial will be filed in June this year.

Then, in November last year, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his former defence minister and a Hamas military commander for alleged war crimes.

Over in the US, true to form of American political rivalry, President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump are bickering over who was the mastermind behind this. A reporter yelled out to Biden after his announcement of the deal, “Who do you think deserves credit for this, Mr President: you or [Donald] Trump?” and Biden was not impressed. “Is that a joke?” came his dry response. 

Biden said in a press conference that the ceasefire was “developed and negotiated by my team and will be largely implemented by the incoming administration”.

Trump, on the other hand, believes this is happening due to the incoming second term of his presidency. “This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies,” he said in a post on his social media network, Truth Social.

On an even different third…fourth (?) hand, the Associated Press has published a list of seven key players in the negotiations of the deal. These include Khalil al-Hayya, the acting head of Hamas’ political bureau and the militant group’s chief negotiator based in Qatar, and Ronen Bar, the head of Israel’s Shin Bet security agency.

We suppose success may indeed have many fathers.

Will this help end the violence?

Even as thousands across Gaza welcomed the ceasefire announcement, Israeli strikes continued. At least 70 people in Gaza overnight and during Thursday have been killed since the announcement of the latest ceasefire agreement, according to the enclave’s civil defence.

This mirrors Israel’s approach in dealing with its war on Hezbollah in Lebanon. While a ceasefire was in the works, Israel launched a widespread attack of some of the heaviest airstrikes to date on Beirut. Since the ceasefire took effect, there have been reports that Israeli troops are still in the south, blowing up and demolishing homes and other infrastructure. They also prevented people from returning to their homes in the south, fired at Lebanese citizens, and killed at least 33 residents of Lebanon in the last month.

It’s clear that Gazans just want the conflict to end. As a people, they have been brutalised; 90% of their population displaced, 46,707 people, including 17,492 children, killed (as of publication), and the ones who survived will inherit physical and psychological trauma. But with Israel’s past actions and now a delay in voting, such a future of peace remains in question.