As the EFF prepares to hold its national conference on 11 December, its leader Julius Malema finds himself navigating one of the most challenging periods of his political career. The conference represents a crucial juncture for Malema, who must consolidate his base and reaffirm his leadership after a turbulent year marked by poor electoral performance, high-profile defections and internal instability.

Et tu, Floyd? High-profile defections rock the EFF

The EFF has historically been a political force that thrives on its charismatic leadership and bold messaging. Yet, this year has exposed vulnerabilities in its foundations. Most notably, the resignations of prominent figures such as Dali Mpofu and, more damagingly, Floyd Shivambu have created a perception of disarray within the party. Shivambu, once seen as Malema’s right-hand man and a key architect of the EFF’s strategy, represented not only a loss of talent but also a blow to the image of unity and loyalty that the EFF has sought to project.

Particularly painful for Malema is that his former comrades have joined the MK Party, which was founded by former president Jacob Zuma, who has a troubled history with the EFF leader. 

Poor performance in the national elections

The recent defections from the party followed its disappointing performance in this year’s national elections. After years of steady growth and increasing dominance in South Africa’s political landscape, the EFF experienced a significant setback, dropping from 44 seats in the National Assembly to 39, which represents 9.52% of the total vote. Additionally, with the DA joining the coalition government, the EFF could only position itself as the second-largest opposition party, following the MK Party, which surprised many by securing 15% of the vote. The reasons for this electoral decline are complex, with analysts citing growing disillusionment among voters and public internal divisions within the party. 

At the heart of the EFF’s challenges is the question of leadership. Malema has been the face of the party since its inception, steering it with a combination of charisma and political savvy. However, the growing calls for accountability and structural reform within the EFF signal a potential shift in its internal dynamics. While Malema still enjoys substantial support, the national conference will test his ability to unify a party that appears more fragmented than ever.

Can Malema renew the organisation?

One of the central issues to be addressed at the conference is the future of the party’s structures. Reports suggest that the EFF is considering a significant overhaul, including the possible collapse of some regional branches and the student command. Such measures acknowledge the organisational weaknesses that have hampered the party’s effectiveness. Yet, they also carry risks. A restructuring could alienate key constituencies and exacerbate the sense of instability that has plagued the EFF this year.

Despite these challenges, Malema remains a political force to be reckoned with. His ability to articulate the frustrations of South Africa’s marginalised and his flair for political theatre has ensured his relevance in a rapidly evolving political landscape. Supporters argue that his leadership is essential for the EFF to weather its current difficulties and chart a path forward. A third term for Malema, as some within the party advocate, could provide the stability needed to rebuild its momentum.

Looking ahead, the EFF faces a critical test of its adaptability. The political environment in South Africa is shifting, with growing competition from other parties and increasing voter demand for tangible results over rhetoric. The EFF’s ability to evolve will depend on its capacity to balance radicalism with pragmatism, address internal divisions, and reconnect with its voter base.

For Malema, the stakes could not be higher. The outcomes of this week will determine whether he can maintain his grip on the EFF and guide it through its most difficult period. More broadly, they will shape the trajectory of a party that has come to symbolise both the potential and the pitfalls of South Africa’s democratic experiment.