The U.S. presidential election is in full swing, with millions of Americans heading to the polls today in a race that’s already one of the closest in recent history. At stake is a tight contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, each offering starkly different visions for the country
For many South Africans, the U.S. presidential election might seem like just another political spectacle happening on the other side of the world. But don’t be fooled! Understanding the dynamics of this election could have real implications for us back home.
Let’s dive into what’s at stake and why this election should be on your radar.
Voting process and expected results
In person voting began earlier today, with polls set to close at varying times across the US. Notably, nearly 100 million votes may have already been cast through early and mail-in voting, which could account for nearly half of all ballots for this election.
Results are declared by state, and while they can sometimes be announced within hours of polls closing, this year’s tight contest between Democratic candidate Harris and former Republican candidate Trump may lead to a longer wait for final results.
Given the close nature of the race, media outlets might hold off on projecting a winner, especially in critical swing states like Pennsylvania. Legal challenges could also complicate matters, as over 100 pre-election lawsuits have already been filed by Republicans concerning voter eligibility and roll management.
Poll predictions for the presidential race
With voting already underway, the polls are showing a nail-biter of a race between Harris and Trump. Current forecasts show them running almost neck-and-neck, particularly in crucial battleground states where the electorate remains divided. Given the tight margins, the possibility of recounts looms large if the results are close.
Who are the candidates and what are their policies?
Currently serving as Vice President under President Joe Biden, Kamala Harris has made history as the first female vice president and the first woman of African American and South Asian descent to hold the office. Her campaign focuses on several core issues, including:
- Economy:
Harris has her eyes set on the working and middle class. Her plan includes cutting taxes for over 100 million Americans by restoring Child Tax Credits and Earned Income Tax Credits. She wants to increase the long-term capital gains tax and raise the corporate tax rate. - Immigration
Harris describes the current immigration system as “broken.” Her goal is to increase legal immigration through more employment-based and family visas, while also enhancing border protection to slow illegal immigration. - Workers’ Rights
Harris is all about workers’ rights. She wants to sign pro-union legislation to protect workers and limit employer interference. Her platform advocates for raising the minimum wage. - Foreign Policy
Harris is keen on protecting U.S. interests, particularly regarding Iran and its nuclear ambitions. She supports Israel’s right to defend itself but has also made calls for a ceasefire to protect Palestinian lives. Harris also advocates for aid to Ukraine against Russian aggression. - Crime and justice
Harris aims to ban assault weapons and push for comprehensive gun control measures. She also supports investing in law enforcement while ensuring accountability, including reforms in the Supreme Court. - Environment
On environmental issues, Harris wants to tackle climate change head-on. She plans to build on the Inflation Reduction Act, which aims to promote clean air and water. - Education
Harris is focused on making childcare and preschool more affordable while working to alleviate the burden of student loan debt. - Abortion and Healthcare
When it comes to abortion, Harris is firmly against any national ban, vowing to restore legal protections. In healthcare, she wants to lower drug costs and strengthen the Affordable Care Act, making healthcare more accessible to all Americans.
Former President Donald Trump is making a comeback in the political arena, seeking to reclaim the presidency after losing to Biden in 2020. Trump’s campaign largely revolves around:
- Economy and Manufacturing
Trump is taking a different route. He promises to tackle inflation and aims to cut the corporate tax rate to 15%. Trump advocates for a “Buy American, hire American” policy, increasing tariffs on foreign goods. (It should be noted: increasing tariffs on foreign goods raises prices, ultimately leading to higher costs for consumers on everyday products.) - Immigration
Trump is known for his hardline stance on immigration. He proposes deporting millions of undocumented migrants and plans to use military troops to “seal the border.” - Workers’ Rights
Trump supports tax cuts for workers and has proposed eliminating taxes on overtime pay. However, he and his running mate JD Vance reject the PRO Act, which seeks to protect union rights, and have even suggested that striking workers could be fired. - Foreign Policy
In foreign policy, Trump advocates for a strong military posture, asserting that this will prevent global conflicts. Notably, he aims to end U.S. involvement in Ukraine and firmly stands by Israel. - Crime and Justice
Trump’s approach to crime includes a tough stance on drug cartels and calls for police immunity from prosecution. He emphasises combating what he describes as a “migrant crime epidemic.” Additionally, Trump has consistently resisted calls for more stringent gun control measures, arguing that such restrictions infringe on Second Amendment rights. - Environment
Trump’s environmental policy is quite different from Harris’s. He’s expressed intentions to withdraw from the Paris Agreement and aims to remove regulations on fossil fuel production. - Education
Trump wants to close the Department of Education and shift responsibility for education to the states. - Abortion and Healthcare
On abortion, Trump has stated it should be a state-level issue and has avoided committing to a national ban, despite his administration’s role in overturning Roe v. Wade. When it comes to healthcare, he critiques the Affordable Care Act, but has yet to offer an alternative.
Why should South Africans care?
The U.S. presidential election isn’t just a big deal for Americans; it has important implications for South Africa and the African continent as a whole. The policies of the next U.S. president can shape trade relationships, foreign aid, and even climate change initiatives that directly impact South Africa.
One major area to consider is the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides South African exports with non-tariff access to American markets. This is crucial for our manufacturing and agricultural sectors. According to J. Brooks Spector speaking to Daily Maverick, AGOA is up for renewal next year, and a more transactional foreign policy from the U.S. could threaten its future. If the incoming president prioritises “quid pro quo” arrangements, it might jeopardise our access to these vital markets.
As votes are cast and results start trickling in, the world is holding its breath to see who will take the White House—Harris or Trump. The policies of the next U.S. president will have global implications, and South Africa is no exception.
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