It feels like déjà vu, doesn’t it? First, it was Cape Town in 2018 with its infamous ‘Day Zero’ scare, where the city teetered on the brink of running out of municipal water. Now, Johannesburg faces its own water crisis, prompting many to ask: Could the taps really run dry in the country’s largest city?

The looming threat of ‘Day Zero’

Let’s start with what ‘Day Zero’ actually means. In simple terms, it’s the day when water supply falls so low that municipal water is shut off, leaving residents reliant on emergency water collection points. While Johannesburg has not hit that critical point yet, water experts warn that the city is running dangerously close to its limits. Demand continues to increase, but Gauteng’s water infrastructure has struggled to keep up.

Factors like population growth, urban sprawl, and climate change have strained water supplies in the region. On top of this, issues like ageing infrastructure, illegal water connections, and poor maintenance further exacerbate the risk. The recent water restrictions imposed in Johannesburg have already stirred concerns.

So, why is this happening?

In a word: overconsumption. Johannesburg’s residents use 279 litres of water per day—60% more than the global average. This isn’t uniform across the board, especially when considering South Africa’s high levels of income inequality.

According to Rand Water, Johannesburg has been using 61% more water than it’s allowed by the government, while nearby municipalities like Ekurhuleni and Tshwane are overusing by 80% and 63%, respectively. It’s a classic case of too much demand and not enough supply.

Throw in the climate crisis, and things get even worse. Johannesburg’s water reserves have been hammered by longer droughts and higher temperatures. El Niño, a natural climate pattern, has reduced rainfall even further, pushing water consumption up just as supplies are dwindling.

Here’s where things get really frustrating: It’s not just that people are using too much water. Johannesburg’s water infrastructure is falling apart. Nearly 50% of the city’s water is lost to leakage and theft, creating a situation where it doesn’t matter how much water is pumped—most of it never reaches residents.

“The more that Rand Water pumps into this leaking sieve, the more they are depleting their reservoirs,” said Anthony Turton, a professor at the University of the Free State. With a system originally designed for far fewer people, Johannesburg is battling a losing game.

The Lesotho Highlands Water Project: What’s happening?

A new development is now adding pressure to Gauteng’s already stretched water system: the planned six-month shutdown of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project (LHWP) tunnel, which supplies 60% of the province’s water.

Starting from 1 October 2024, the LHWPtunnel, will be shut down for six months for planned maintenance. This isn’t an emergency breakdown, but a necessary process to ensure the tunnel remains functional for the long term. The tunnel’s corrosion protection needs to be updated, a procedure done every five years, to preserve its integrity for the next two to three decades.

Reentseng Molapo, the Lesotho Highlands Project’s Divisional Manager for Development and Operations, explained that the process is intricate and must be handled carefully. “Every day of the year, we are continuously transferring water. So this time around 30th of September at midnight, we are shutting down, no more deliveries,” he said. He added, “It will take about two to three weeks to take that water out of the tunnels. It has to be taken out in a slow, controlled fashion because you want to allow the tunnel to still maintain its integrity.”

The process will affect Phase I of the Water Transfer and Delivery Tunnels, stopping the flow of water from the Katse Dam in Lesotho to Gauteng for the entire maintenance period. This will have a direct impact on Johannesburg’s water supply.

What does this mean for Johannesburg?

The closure of the LHWP tunnel couldn’t come at a more precarious time for Gauteng. While the shutdown is essential for long-term water security, it places immense pressure on a water system that is already stretched thin. Gauteng receives a significant portion of its water from the Integrated Vaal River System (IVRS), which consists of 14 interconnected dams, including the Vaal, Sterkfontein, and Bloemhof Dams.

These dams, augmented by water transferred from Lesotho’s Katse and Mohale Dams, currently support 19 million people in Gauteng, the Free State, Mpumalanga, and the North West. But during the six-month shutdown, that crucial flow from Lesotho will be cut off.

Water and Sanitation Minister Pemmy Majodina has assured citizens that the Department of Water and Sanitation has taken proactive measures to ensure continued water supply during this period. “Despite preparations already made by the government to ensure continued supply of water, it is crucial that we collectively minimise the impact on all of us through responsible consumption of water during this time,” Majodina said.

Avoiding the crisis: What happens next?

Johannesburg’s ‘Day Zero’ isn’t a certainty – at least not yet. The government has undertaken a thorough analysis to assess the impact of the tunnel closure on water availability. While the analysis confirmed that most dams within the IVRS would remain relatively full during the maintenance period, officials have emphasised the importance of water conservation.

South Africa has already received most of its contracted annual water delivery from the LHWP, ensuring that water shortages won’t be immediate. However, there will still be an 80 million cubic metre shortfall to make up after the tunnel reopens.

The key to avoiding ‘Day Zero’ in Johannesburg now rests on the public’s ability to work together with the government. With maintenance on the LHWP tunnel expected to last until 31 March 2025, it’s vital that residents take action now to reduce water consumption, ensuring that the available supply lasts until the system is back up and running.

If you live in Gauteng, now is the time to be conscious of your water usage. Small steps, like taking shorter showers, fixing leaky taps, and using water-efficient appliances, can make a big difference when multiplied across millions of households.

The government may have taken significant steps to prepare, but Majodina’s message is clear: “Given the temporary halt in water deliveries, it is essential to use water sparingly and avoid wastage during this time.” Johannesburg might not be at ‘Day Zero’ yet, but without collective effort, it could be closer than we think.